Uragano Milton (2024): Origini, Intensificazione, e sfide di previsione costiera
Hurricane Milton of 2024
Uragano Milton was a remarkably powerful Atlantic hurricane, diventando il secondo ciclone tropicale più intenso mai registrato nel Golfo del Messico. La tempesta si è abbattuta sulla Florida, just under two weeks after Hurricane Helene struck the state’s Big Bend area. Milton, the thirteenth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, was also the ninth hurricane, fourth major hurricane, and second Category 5 storm of the season. Additionally, it became the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2024.
Milton developed from a long-tracked tropical disturbance that first appeared in the western Caribbean Sea and consolidated in the Bay of Campeche on October 5, 2024. Over the next two days, the storm underwent explosive intensification, reaching Category 5 status on October 7, with winds of 180 mph (285 km/h). Its peak intensity was marked by a central pressure of 897 millibars (26.49 inHg), making it the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record. After undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, Milton briefly weakened to a Category 4 storm before reintensifying into a Category 5 hurricane. Tuttavia, increasing wind shear led to a decrease in strength as Milton turned northeastward toward Florida. By the time it made landfall near Siesta Key on the evening of October 9, 2024, it had weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h).
In response to Milton’s approach, Florida declared a state of emergency, prompting the evacuation of many coastal residents. Preparations were also undertaken in Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula. The hurricane triggered a tornado outbreak in Florida and caused widespread flooding. As of October 10, 2024, Hurricane Milton had claimed at least 11 lives—10 in the United States and 1 in Mexico.
Meteorological History
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) first noted the potential for development in the western Caribbean Sea on September 26, 2024. A broad low-pressure area formed, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but it briefly dissipated into an open trough. This disturbance then interacted with the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E from the Eastern Pacific and a stationary front, eventually consolidating in the Bay of Campeche. By October 4, the system became better organized and was designated as Invest 92L. By the next day, the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression Fourteen, and it quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Milton within a few hours, as satellite data revealed gale-force winds.
As Milton moved erratically in the Bay of Campeche, weak steering currents slowed its progress. A developing mid-level trough over the Central U.S. ultimately steered Milton eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Milton’s radius of maximum winds was relatively small at just 30 nautical miles (56 km), but spiral banding and frequent convection bursts continued throughout October 6.
By the afternoon of October 6, reconnaissance flights found that Milton had intensified into a hurricane, and intermittent eye formation was observed. Favorable conditions, including very warm sea surface temperatures of 31°C (88°F), high mid-level humidity, and low wind shear, facilitated Milton’s rapid intensification. A tiny “pinhole” eye formed within deep convection, and Milton quickly strengthened into a major hurricane. By October 7, it reached Category 5 status, becoming the second storm of the season to reach this intensity.
At its peak, on October 8, Milton’s maximum sustained winds reached 180 mph (285 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 897 millibars (26.49 inHg), the lowest since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. This rapid intensification, with a pressure drop of 84 millibars (2.48 inHg) and a 90 mph (145 km/h) increase in winds over 24 ore, was one of the fastest-ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
Following its peak, Milton underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, which temporarily weakened the storm to Category 4. Tuttavia, it reintensified back to Category 5 before strong wind shear caused further weakening as the storm approached Florida.
Landfall and Impact
Milton made landfall at 00:30 UTC on October 10, 2024 (8:30 p.m. local time on October 9), near Siesta Key, Florida, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 120 mph (195 km/h). As it moved inland, the storm rapidly weakened, dropping to Category 2 status by 10 p.m. local time and further weakening to a Category 1 storm by early the next morning. Frictional effects from the land helped dissipate the storm quickly.
Ahead of Milton’s landfall, Florida’s state of emergency declarations resulted in widespread evacuations from coastal areas at risk of dangerous storm surges and flooding. In addition to the United States, Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula prepared for potential impacts, though Milton’s direct effects there were limited.
The storm caused widespread destruction in Florida, including a significant tornado outbreak and extensive flooding, particularly in low-lying areas. The loss of life totaled 11 persone, with 10 fatalities reported in the U.S. and one in Mexico. Damage assessments were still underway as of October 10, but early estimates suggested significant economic losses due to flooding, infrastructure damage, and disruptions to the local power grid.
Summary of Milton’s Intensity
Milton was among the most intense Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded, reaching the fifth-lowest pressure ever in the basin. Below is a list of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes based on pressure:
| Rank | Hurricane | Season | Pressure (hPa) | Pressure (inHg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wilma | 2005 | 882 | 26.05 |
| 2 | Gilbert | 1988 | 888 | 26.23 |
| 3 | “Labor Day” | 1935 | 892 | 26.34 |
| 4 | Rita | 2005 | 895 | 26.43 |
| 5 | Milton | 2024 | 897 | 26.49 |
| 6 | Allen | 1980 | 899 | 26.55 |
| 7 | Camille | 1969 | 900 | 26.58 |
| 8 | Katrina | 2005 | 902 | 26.64 |
| 9 | Mitch | 1998 | 905 | 26.73 |
Milton’s rapid intensification and its brief re-strengthening to Category 5 after undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle showcased the storm’s volatile nature. Despite weakening before landfall, Milton was a deadly and destructive storm, contributing to one of the most notable Atlantic hurricane seasons in recent history.
